CONSTRAIN

Predicting how the climate will change over the next 20-50 years, as well as defining emissions pathways to keep the world on track, requires a better understanding of how several human and natural factors will affect the climate in coming decades. These include how atmospheric aerosols affect the Earth’s radiation budget, and the roles of clouds and oceans in driving climate change.

Illustration: DALL-E.

Project details

Financing

European Union's Horizon 2020

Subject areas

Climate Models

Climate risk

Temperature changes

Precipitation changes

Atmospheric particles

Climate impacts internationally

Visit the CONSTRAIN web page here:

https://constrain-eu.org/about/

CONSTRAIN, a consortium of 14 European partners, is investigating these factors, feeding them into climate models to reduce uncertainties in, and create improved climate projections for, the next 20-50 years, on regional as well as global scales.

It is also translating this new scientific understanding into an improved and up-to-date evidence base aimed at informing international climate policy, and supporting decisions on climate mitigation and adaptation.

Constrain focuses on three climate science knowledge gaps plus one policy-facing knowledge gap:

CONSTRAIN-Knowledge-Gap-Diagram-v2-300dpi-scaled-600x680.jpg — CONSTRAIN is structured around three science knowledge gaps particularly relevant for climate projections on the 20-50 year timeframe and a fourth knowledge gap on the translation of new science in societal decisions

Knowledge gaps

Knowledge Gap A: The magnitude and pattern of effective radiative forcing

Knowledge Gap B: The magnitude of cloud feedbacks and the role of cloud-circulation coupling in determining the pattern of climate change and climate sensitivity

Knowledge Gap C: The manner in which ocean variability conditions the response of the climate system to effective radiative forcings on different timescales

Knowledge Gap D: Translation of insights and uncertainties in variability and forced response on 20-50 year timescales into improved projections and effective adaptation and mitigation policy decisions

Involved CICERO staff

Gunnar Myhre

Research Director

Articles

Cleanup of air pollution heats the Earth

Published 3.4.2024

Recent reductions in emissions of tiny particles, the major cause of air pollution globally, have led to more heat in the Earth’s climate system. This is shown in a new international study led by CICERO and published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

Related research groups

Atmospheric Sciences

The research group covers a broad range of topics within the atmospheric sciences. We are primarily a modelling group, studying radiative forcing of the climate system, and the role of gases, aerosols and clouds.