Emission scenarios

26 hits for "Emission scenarios"

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Articles

Deadly heat, dirty air and the cost to European lives

Published 18.12.2025

How much will deadly heat cost European societies in the coming decades – not only in lives lost but in economic welfare terms? A recent paper from the EXHAUSTION project “What are the costs of heat spell mortality in Europe’s urban areas up to 2050?” addresses that question.

Emission scenarios | Heat waves | Air pollution

The Winding Road to 1.5 Degrees

Published 3.10.2025

To limit global warming to around 1.5 degrees, we must remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. Exactly how much can be removed is uncertain. The only thing that seems sure is that it will be a massive cleanup job. Nevertheless, many countries have this as a strategy to reach their climate goals.

Temperature changes | Land use | Carbon emissions globally | Forests | Emission scenarios

Uneven representation of scenarios in IPCC report can lead to biased recommendations

Published 2.10.2025

Governments and organizations set climate targets motivated by findings in IPCC reports. A new study by CICERO finds that an uneven representation of models and studies in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report can lead to biased statistics and policy impacts.

Emission scenarios | IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

How has climate policy and technology affected the transformation toward a low-emission future?

Published 21.1.2025

While emissions have grown and climate targets become more ambitious over the last decade, the investments needed to limit global warming to below 1.5-2°C have not increased, thanks to faster-than-expected reduction in costs of clean technologies such as solar, wind and battery storage. This analysis was published in Nature Climate Change.

Emission scenarios | International climate policy | IPCC Sixth Assessment Report | Renewable energy

Nitrous oxide emissions grew 40 percent from 1980 to 2020

Published 12.6.2024

According to a new report by the Global Carbon Project, emissions of nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas about 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide – continued unabated between 1980 and 2020.

Food and agriculture | Emission scenarios

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to rise in 2023

Published 19.10.2023

How are global emissions projected to develop in the years to come? To reach pathways consistent with the goals in the Paris Agreement, global CO₂ emissions should be falling by around five percent this year.

Climate impacts internationally | Emission scenarios | Oil and gas policy | Renewable energy | Carbon emissions globally

Back to the future: About scenarios and what they can tell us

Published 20.10.2022

The latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completes its trilogy on causes, impacts and solutions relating to global warming. The key to understanding the solutions lie in the scenarios that illustrate how society may develop towards a carbon-free future.

Emission scenarios

Emissions growth slowdown: Can we now keep global warming under 2°C?

Published 23.3.2022

COMMENTARY: We have had three years with virtually no growth in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry. What has caused the slowdown and does this put us on a path below 2°C?

Emission scenarios | Climate budgets

Stylised pathways to “well below 2°C”

Published 21.3.2022

COMMENTARY: Some people love negative emissions, others hate them. Some people think 1.5°C is impossible, others think it is a matter of political will. I think stylised figures are a great way to explain the challenges.

Emission scenarios | Technology for change

Figure showing modelled temperature pathways.

Large uncertainty in warming outcomes of current policies and emission pledges

Published 22.11.2021

During the recent Glasgow Climate Conference (COP26) there was a lot of focus on the climate outcomes of new climate policy pledges. A new analysis shows that these outcomes are more uncertain then often assumed.

Carbon emissions globally | International climate policy | Climate Models | Emission scenarios

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Projects

EMPHASIS - Exploring Mitigation Pathways for Holistic Sustainable development in Indian States

EMPHASIS develops novel knowledge on climate mitigation and energy transition pathways at Indian state and national levels, and their synergies and trade-offs with sustainable development in terms of energy security, economic growth, air quality, health and social justice.

DIAMOND - Delivering the next generation of open Integrated Assessment MOdels for Net-zero, sustainable Development

The DIAMOND project contributes to the development of the next generation of integrated assessment models (IAMs), which will be fully open and sufficiently equipped to scientifically underpin and support an accelerated transition towards circular, resilient, desirable, and sustainable climate neutrality.

Climate Models | Emission scenarios | Global climate targets | International climate policy | Circular economy

AVIATE: How can aviation contribute to a low-carbon society?

The AVIATE (Aviation in a low-carbon society) project will provide better understanding of the climate impact of aviation, both for Norway and globally, and explore options for reducing that impact.

StressTest: Using scenarios to assess climate risk in the financial sector

Increasingly, financial decision-makers are asked to assess, disclose and respond to climate-related risks across a range of potential future scenarios. In the project StressTest, CICERO will produce scenario data and guidelines that will allow help financial actors to respond to regulatory initiatives on scenario use.

Emission scenarios | Climate risk | Climate finance

PARIS REINFORCE: Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach

The PARIS REINFORCE EU-funded project is developing a novel, demand-driven, integrated assessment model-oriented framework for effectively supporting the design and analysis of climate policies in the EU as well as in other major emitters and selected less emitting countries.

Global carbon budget

The Global Carbon Project aims to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. CICERO plays a key role in this work.

Carbon emissions globally | Emission scenarios

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Research groups

Climate Mitigation

The research group works to understand the trends and drivers of historical and future emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, and their effect on the climate.

Climate System

The Climate System group conducts research to understand the physical changes and evolution of the global and regional climate system, the underlying driving human-induced and natural processes, and the subsequent consequences.

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